Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 3-2
Cerro Porteño vs Caracas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.7%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.6%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.1%
3-0
10%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
16.6%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.6%
9.7%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.1%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2017 |
CCP
0 - 3
AME
68%
19%
13%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2017 |
LIB
2 - 1
CCP
47%
26%
27%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2017 |
CCP
2 - 1
NAC
64%
20%
16%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2017 |
RÑU
0 - 3
CCP
29%
27%
45%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2016 |
CCP
4 - 1
LQE
59%
22%
20%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Caracas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2017 |
MET
1 - 1
CFC
17%
27%
56%
|
65 | 46 | 19 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2017 |
CFC
1 - 1
ZAM
39%
27%
34%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2017 |
ARA
2 - 1
CFC
30%
29%
41%
|
66 | 55 | 11 | -1 |
| 07 Feb. 2017 |
CFC
1 - 0
DEP
44%
28%
28%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Jan. 2017 |
MON
1 - 1
CFC
43%
27%
30%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | -1 |