CD Diocesano vs Castuera analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.4%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.4%
17.2%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
29
1º
6º
6º
17
9º
17º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
31 | 71 |
1º
|
39.5% | |
|
1º
|
37 | 71 |
2º
|
23% | |
|
3º
|
31 | 65 |
3º
|
21.5% | |
|
4º
|
30 | 64 |
4º
|
20.5% | |
|
6º
|
28 | 62 |
5º
|
24% | |
|
|
5º
|
29 | 60 |
6º
|
26.5% | |
|
7º
|
24 | 48 |
7º
|
27% | |
|
8º
|
22 | 46 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
18 | 43 |
9º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
17 | 42 |
10º
|
14.5% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 42 |
11º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
19 | 41 |
12º
|
14% | |
|
12º
|
18 | 40 |
13º
|
15.5% | |
|
15º
|
16 | 38 |
14º
|
17.5% | |
|
14º
|
17 | 33 |
15º
|
24% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 26 |
16º
|
22% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 26 |
17º
|
29.5% | |
|
17º
|
11 | 26 |
18º
|
32.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
2.5% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
57.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
40% | 90.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 9.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD Diocesano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
TRU
1 - 4
CDD
21%
23%
56%
|
32 | 22 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
CDD
3 - 0
JER
65%
19%
16%
|
31 | 24 | 7 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
MON
0 - 0
CDD
19%
22%
59%
|
31 | 19 | 12 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
CDD
2 - 3
CFJ
65%
19%
16%
|
32 | 25 | 7 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 2024 |
TRU
0 - 1
CDD
22%
24%
55%
|
32 | 23 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Castuera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
CAS
1 - 3
AZU
30%
24%
47%
|
28 | 37 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
1 - 2
CDE
57%
22%
21%
|
29 | 23 | 6 | -1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 0
SAM
67%
19%
14%
|
28 | 18 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
AZU
1 - 1
CAS
55%
23%
22%
|
28 | 37 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 0
OLI
58%
22%
21%
|
27 | 25 | 2 | +1 |