Castuera vs Santa Amalia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.8%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
8%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.5%
13.5%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.1%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
7º
17º
8º
10
5º
14º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
14 | 76 |
1º
|
58% | |
|
5º
|
13 | 70 |
2º
|
24% | |
|
2º
|
14 | 64 |
3º
|
20% | |
|
3º
|
14 | 64 |
4º
|
25.5% | |
|
6º
|
11 | 61 |
5º
|
17% | |
|
4º
|
13 | 54 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
8º
|
9 | 48 |
7º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
8 | 47 |
8º
|
11% | |
|
10º
|
9 | 45 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
15º
|
6 | 45 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
9º
|
9 | 42 |
11º
|
6.5% | |
|
11º
|
9 | 42 |
12º
|
9% | |
|
|
7º
|
10 | 39 |
13º
|
8.5% | |
|
12º
|
9 | 35 |
14º
|
14% | |
|
16º
|
5 | 34 |
15º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
7 | 33 |
16º
|
16.5% | |
|
17º
|
5 | 31 |
17º
|
15.5% | |
|
18º
|
4 | 21 |
18º
|
49.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
13% | 4% |
|
Mid-table
|
79.5% | 64% |
|
Relegation
|
7% | 32% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castuera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
CAL
1 - 0
CAS
36%
25%
40%
|
28 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 1
MON
43%
23%
34%
|
27 | 29 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
VIL
0 - 0
CAS
54%
23%
23%
|
26 | 31 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
CAS
2 - 2
MOR
47%
23%
30%
|
26 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
CDD
1 - 0
CAS
63%
19%
17%
|
27 | 33 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Santa Amalia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 1
TRU
49%
23%
28%
|
20 | 23 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
PUE
1 - 2
SAM
62%
21%
17%
|
19 | 26 | 7 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
SAM
2 - 0
PUE
60%
20%
19%
|
18 | 19 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
CDE
4 - 0
SAM
70%
16%
14%
|
19 | 27 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 0
CFJ
28%
22%
51%
|
18 | 25 | 7 | +1 |