Castuera vs Santa Amalia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
8%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.5%
13.5%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.1%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
13
8º
17º
9º
11
5º
15º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
3º
|
22 | 75 |
1º
|
55.5% | |
|
5º
|
21 | 70 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
4º
|
21 | 67 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 67 |
4º
|
21% | |
|
1º
|
25 | 63 |
5º
|
15% | |
|
6º
|
19 | 62 |
6º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
14 | 49 |
7º
|
15.5% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 46 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
13 | 45 |
9º
|
17% | |
|
14º
|
11 | 43 |
10º
|
11% | |
|
13º
|
12 | 41 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
9º
|
13 | 41 |
12º
|
13% | |
|
11º
|
13 | 36 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
16º
|
8 | 34 |
14º
|
16.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
11 | 34 |
15º
|
14% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 32 |
16º
|
20% | |
|
17º
|
6 | 28 |
17º
|
22.5% | |
|
18º
|
4 | 18 |
18º
|
64% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
4.5% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
87.5% | 59% |
|
Relegation
|
8% | 40.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castuera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
CAL
1 - 0
CAS
36%
25%
40%
|
28 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 1
MON
43%
23%
34%
|
27 | 29 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
VIL
0 - 0
CAS
54%
23%
23%
|
26 | 31 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
CAS
2 - 2
MOR
47%
23%
30%
|
26 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
CDD
1 - 0
CAS
63%
19%
17%
|
27 | 33 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Santa Amalia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 1
TRU
49%
23%
28%
|
20 | 23 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
PUE
1 - 2
SAM
62%
21%
17%
|
19 | 26 | 7 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
SAM
2 - 0
PUE
60%
20%
19%
|
18 | 19 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
CDE
4 - 0
SAM
70%
16%
14%
|
19 | 27 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 0
CFJ
28%
22%
51%
|
18 | 25 | 7 | +1 |