Castanet vs Bassin d'Arcachon Sud analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.9%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.8%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.9%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
16.3%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-29%
+67%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
0
6º
13º
7º
0
1º
10º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
13º
|
0 | 49 |
1º
|
41% | |
|
3º
|
0 | 42 |
2º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
0 | 41 |
3º
|
10% | |
|
5º
|
0 | 41 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
0 | 39 |
5º
|
11% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 38 |
6º
|
10% | |
|
|
6º
|
0 | 38 |
7º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
0 | 37 |
8º
|
10% | |
|
|
2º
|
0 | 34 |
9º
|
10.5% | |
|
4º
|
0 | 33 |
10º
|
12.5% | |
|
1º
|
0 | 33 |
11º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
0 | 33 |
12º
|
7.5% | |
|
9º
|
0 | 28 |
13º
|
28.5% | |
|
8º
|
0 | 18 |
14º
|
77% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
5.5% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
72.5% | 48.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
9.5% | 12.5% |
|
Relegation
|
12.5% | 38.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castanet
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
COL
8 - 1
CAS
38%
27%
35%
|
41 | 38 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
CAS
1 - 0
FCP
49%
25%
26%
|
39 | 38 | 1 | +2 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
TRE
1 - 1
CAS
37%
28%
35%
|
39 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 0
BLA
48%
26%
26%
|
39 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
ONE
1 - 1
CAS
32%
23%
45%
|
39 | 30 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Bassin d'Arcachon Sud
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 1
LEG
42%
24%
34%
|
28 | 33 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
FCA
2 - 0
BAS
53%
22%
26%
|
29 | 33 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
BAS
4 - 0
GDB
44%
23%
32%
|
27 | 30 | 3 | +2 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
BAS
3 - 2
COL
22%
23%
54%
|
24 | 39 | 15 | +3 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
FCP
1 - 2
BAS
77%
14%
9%
|
23 | 37 | 14 | +1 |