B. Dortmund vs Werder Bremen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.5%
Win probability
2.41
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.5%
2-0
11%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
16.9%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
16.9%
11.6%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
1º
11º
6º
27
7º
12º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
48 | 86 |
1º
|
93% | |
|
2º
|
42 | 75 |
2º
|
83.5% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 62 |
3º
|
45.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 61 |
4º
|
32% | |
|
4º
|
32 | 59 |
5º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
26 | 56 |
6º
|
21.5% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 50 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 49 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 49 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 48 |
10º
|
18% | |
|
|
9º
|
27 | 45 |
11º
|
26% | |
|
12º
|
25 | 40 |
12º
|
25% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 36 |
13º
|
28.5% | |
|
14º
|
18 | 36 |
14º
|
27% | |
|
15º
|
17 | 32 |
15º
|
28% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 27 |
16º
|
32.5% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
33% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 22 |
18º
|
50% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
17% | 0.5% |
|
Europa League
|
23% | 1% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
21.5% | 3.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
38.5% | 95% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2025 |
BOL
2 - 1
BVB
29%
23%
49%
|
96 | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2025 |
EIN
2 - 0
BVB
25%
23%
52%
|
96 | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
HOL
4 - 2
BVB
9%
16%
75%
|
97 | 82 | 15 | -1 |
| 10 Jan. 2025 |
BVB
2 - 3
LEV
34%
24%
42%
|
97 | 99 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
WOL
1 - 3
BVB
17%
21%
62%
|
96 | 90 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Werder Bremen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
0 - 2
AUG
51%
23%
25%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
3 - 3
HEI
50%
24%
26%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
RBL
4 - 2
BRE
71%
18%
12%
|
89 | 97 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
2 - 3
TWE
47%
24%
30%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | +1 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
BRE
4 - 1
FCU
43%
26%
31%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |