Benfica vs Estrela da Amadora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.7%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
3.6%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.7%
4-0
7.3%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.8%
3-0
11.6%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.8%
2-0
14%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.1%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
14.3%
7%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.4%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
44
1º
15º
2º
17
10º
17º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 77 |
1º
|
71% | |
|
|
2º
|
44 | 71 |
2º
|
31.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 68 |
3º
|
31.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
42% | |
|
7º
|
29 | 53 |
5º
|
40% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 53 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 44 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 44 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 43 |
11º
|
17% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 40 |
12º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 40 |
13º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 35 |
14º
|
25.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
27% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 27 |
17º
|
20% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
18º
|
32.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
15% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
31.5% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
33.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
19% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
1% | 33.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 27% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 39.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SLB
3 - 0
CAS
75%
16%
9%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
FAM
2 - 0
SLB
23%
24%
53%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
SLB
0 - 1
FUL
49%
23%
28%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
5 - 0
FEY
45%
23%
32%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
1 - 1
BRE
43%
23%
33%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Estrela da Amadora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug. 2024 |
ESA
0 - 3
FAM
26%
26%
49%
|
69 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
SPB
1 - 1
ESA
75%
17%
9%
|
68 | 88 | 20 | +1 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
ESA
2 - 0
BEN
52%
22%
27%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
USA
2 - 1
ESA
15%
20%
65%
|
68 | 50 | 18 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
BRE
1 - 3
ESA
76%
16%
8%
|
68 | 89 | 21 | 0 |