Azerbaijan vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
5.8%
Win probability
0.27
Expected goals
3-0
0.1%
+3
0.1%
2-0
0.6%
3-1
0.1%
+2
0.6%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
0.9%
3-2
0.1%
+1
5.1%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
14.9%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
0.7%
3-3
<0%
0
22.3%
71.9%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
24.3%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
30.1%
0-2
19.8%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.2%
-2
22.9%
0-3
10.8%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
12%
0-4
4.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
4.8%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Azerbaijan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2002 |
AZE
2 - 0
UZB
18%
22%
59%
|
62 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2002 |
IRN
1 - 1
AZE
92%
7%
2%
|
62 | 88 | 26 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2002 |
LVA
0 - 0
AZE
68%
19%
13%
|
61 | 71 | 10 | +1 |
| 03 Jul. 2002 |
EST
0 - 0
AZE
63%
21%
17%
|
61 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2002 |
MLT
1 - 0
AZE
45%
24%
31%
|
62 | 57 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2002 |
ITA
0 - 1
SVN
90%
8%
2%
|
99 | 83 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2002 |
KOR
2 - 1
ITA
12%
24%
64%
|
99 | 90 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2002 |
MEX
1 - 1
ITA
17%
25%
59%
|
99 | 92 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 2002 |
ITA
1 - 2
CRO
78%
15%
7%
|
99 | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2002 |
ITA
2 - 0
ECU
85%
11%
3%
|
99 | 87 | 12 | 0 |