Atlético vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.9%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.1%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.9%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.3%
57.8%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.7%
0-3
6.2%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.7%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.2%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2024 |
RMA
5 - 3
ATM
65%
20%
16%
|
94 | 98 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
1 - 3
ATM
4%
14%
82%
|
94 | 61 | 33 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2024 |
GIR
4 - 3
ATM
25%
25%
50%
|
94 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
ATM
1 - 0
SEV
65%
20%
15%
|
94 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2023 |
ATM
3 - 3
GET
70%
19%
12%
|
93 | 85 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
RMA
4 - 1
FCB
59%
21%
20%
|
98 | 95 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2024 |
RMA
5 - 3
ATM
65%
20%
16%
|
98 | 94 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
ACF
1 - 3
RMA
2%
11%
88%
|
98 | 39 | 59 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2024 |
RMA
1 - 0
MLL
82%
13%
6%
|
98 | 83 | 15 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2023 |
ALA
0 - 1
RMA
6%
17%
76%
|
98 | 81 | 17 | 0 |