Aston Villa vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.5%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.5%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.5%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.7%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.1%
33.4%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
9.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.6%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.4%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 1975 |
NOR
5 - 3
ASV
53%
24%
23%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 1975 |
QPR
1 - 1
ASV
62%
22%
17%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1975 |
ASV
1 - 2
LEE
30%
28%
43%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 1975 |
NOR
1 - 4
ASV
55%
24%
21%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1975 |
ASV
2 - 0
SUN
49%
25%
26%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 1975 |
COV
2 - 0
MAC
48%
25%
27%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1975 |
MAC
1 - 1
LEI
62%
22%
16%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1975 |
MAC
3 - 0
NOR
68%
20%
13%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1975 |
LUT
1 - 1
MAC
37%
27%
36%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1975 |
MAC
1 - 1
IPS
48%
26%
26%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |