Conference League Quarter-finals
Global 3-3
Aston Villa vs Lille analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.5%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
14.7%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ASV
3 - 3
BRE
58%
22%
20%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2024 |
MAC
4 - 1
ASV
82%
13%
6%
|
92 | 100 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
ASV
2 - 0
WOL
59%
22%
19%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
WHU
1 - 1
ASV
47%
24%
29%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2024 |
ASV
4 - 0
AJA
60%
20%
20%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Lille
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
LIL
3 - 1
MAR
47%
25%
28%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
LIL
2 - 1
LEN
50%
25%
25%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
BRE
1 - 1
LIL
30%
27%
43%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2024 |
LIL
1 - 1
STR
67%
19%
14%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
LIL
2 - 2
REN
46%
25%
29%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |