Arucas vs Herbania analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
11%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.7%
14.9%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
1º
6º
6º
10
11º
17º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
26 | 73 |
1º
|
45.5% | |
|
1º
|
26 | 72 |
2º
|
29.5% | |
|
3º
|
25 | 66 |
3º
|
29% | |
|
4º
|
24 | 59 |
4º
|
23.5% | |
|
5º
|
22 | 54 |
5º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
21 | 53 |
6º
|
13.5% | |
|
9º
|
16 | 48 |
7º
|
11% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 47 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 47 |
9º
|
8.5% | |
|
12º
|
14 | 46 |
10º
|
8% | |
|
14º
|
11 | 43 |
11º
|
11.5% | |
|
7º
|
19 | 42 |
12º
|
11.5% | |
|
13º
|
13 | 41 |
13º
|
9.5% | |
|
11º
|
15 | 41 |
14º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
10 | 32 |
15º
|
18% | |
|
17º
|
8 | 30 |
16º
|
18.5% | |
|
16º
|
8 | 27 |
17º
|
22.5% | |
|
18º
|
4 | 26 |
18º
|
38.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
41% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
57.5% | 38% |
|
Relegation
|
1% | 62% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arucas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
SBA
0 - 1
ARU
43%
23%
34%
|
31 | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
ARU
1 - 0
CSU
56%
22%
22%
|
30 | 28 | 2 | +1 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
ARU
2 - 0
MAR
49%
23%
28%
|
29 | 28 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
CSU
1 - 1
ARU
40%
25%
35%
|
29 | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2024 |
ARU
4 - 0
UPR
74%
16%
10%
|
28 | 18 | 10 | +1 |
Matches
Herbania
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
HBN
1 - 1
UDS
14%
20%
66%
|
24 | 42 | 18 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
UNV
1 - 1
HBN
43%
26%
31%
|
24 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
LPA
2 - 0
HBN
80%
13%
6%
|
25 | 39 | 14 | -1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
HBN
2 - 1
VSB
30%
25%
45%
|
24 | 30 | 6 | +1 |
| 01 May. 2024 |
LAN
2 - 0
HBN
75%
17%
8%
|
24 | 41 | 17 | 0 |