Arles vs Caen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.1%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.2%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.3%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.8%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
55%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
0-1
11.8%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.6%
0-2
10.1%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.9%
0-3
5.8%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.6%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.4%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2010 |
ARL
0 - 3
MAR
11%
22%
68%
|
66 | 89 | 23 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2010 |
PSG
4 - 0
ARL
75%
17%
8%
|
66 | 84 | 18 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2010 |
ARL
0 - 1
REN
21%
27%
52%
|
67 | 85 | 18 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2010 |
TFC
2 - 1
ARL
62%
24%
14%
|
67 | 83 | 16 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2010 |
ARL
0 - 1
LEN
21%
28%
51%
|
67 | 82 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Caen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2010 |
LOR
0 - 1
CAE
51%
25%
25%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2010 |
AUX
1 - 1
CAE
52%
25%
23%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2010 |
CAE
0 - 2
BRE
58%
25%
17%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2010 |
MPL
0 - 0
CAE
44%
26%
30%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2010 |
CAE
3 - 2
LYO
16%
23%
61%
|
78 | 90 | 12 | 0 |