Alcains vs O Elvas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14.1%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
2%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.1%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
10%
21.1%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.1%
64.8%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
0-1
13%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.3%
0-2
12.6%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20%
0-3
8.1%
1-4
3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
11.5%
0-4
3.9%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
5.2%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.9%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
13º
14º
14º
10
1º
7º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
10 | 54 |
1º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
5 | 52 |
2º
|
33.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 44 |
3º
|
20% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 43 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 38 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 38 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
3º
|
8 | 38 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 36 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
7º
|
4 | 33 |
9º
|
8% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 33 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 31 |
11º
|
20.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 30 |
12º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 17 |
13º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
1 | 14 |
14º
|
56.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 75% |
|
Mid-table
|
1.5% | 25% |
|
Relegation
|
98.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alcains
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
FAT
0 - 0
ALC
84%
11%
5%
|
20 | 36 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
ALC
0 - 1
PER
18%
23%
59%
|
20 | 34 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
SER
1 - 3
ALC
76%
17%
7%
|
19 | 42 | 23 | +1 |
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
ALC
2 - 0
SAB
17%
19%
64%
|
17 | 26 | 9 | +2 |
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
ALC
2 - 5
LOU
15%
23%
63%
|
18 | 34 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
O Elvas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
OEL
2 - 0
MAR
69%
19%
12%
|
63 | 15 | 48 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
MOR
1 - 1
OEL
19%
23%
58%
|
63 | 41 | 22 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
OEL
2 - 1
VST
57%
25%
19%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
ALE
1 - 1
OEL
18%
26%
57%
|
63 | 47 | 16 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
FAB
2 - 1
OEL
19%
23%
58%
|
63 | 42 | 21 | 0 |