Ajax vs Utrecht analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.4%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
8%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
26.1%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
29
2º
9º
2º
31
2º
8º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
36 | 77 |
1º
|
59% | |
|
|
3º
|
29 | 72 |
2º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
31 | 69 |
3º
|
26% | |
|
4º
|
28 | 68 |
4º
|
21% | |
|
5º
|
25 | 62 |
5º
|
23.5% | |
|
6º
|
20 | 58 |
6º
|
41% | |
|
9º
|
16 | 48 |
7º
|
29% | |
|
10º
|
16 | 45 |
8º
|
18.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 44 |
9º
|
17.5% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 40 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
12º
|
14 | 40 |
11º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
12 | 38 |
12º
|
14.5% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 38 |
13º
|
12.5% | |
|
16º
|
11 | 37 |
14º
|
10% | |
|
13º
|
13 | 36 |
15º
|
16% | |
|
11º
|
16 | 35 |
16º
|
19% | |
|
18º
|
5 | 24 |
17º
|
36.5% | |
|
17º
|
6 | 23 |
18º
|
47.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
25.5% | 8.5% |
|
Champions League
|
28.5% | 18.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
14.5% | 26% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
15% | 21% |
|
Next round
|
16.5% | 26% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 2024 |
AJA
2 - 0
ZWO
67%
19%
14%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
TWE
2 - 2
AJA
37%
24%
39%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2024 |
AJA
5 - 0
MTA
67%
19%
14%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
AJA
3 - 2
PSV
40%
24%
36%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
FEY
0 - 2
AJA
39%
24%
38%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Utrecht
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 2024 |
NEC
1 - 2
UTR
38%
24%
38%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2024 |
UTR
1 - 0
HER
65%
20%
15%
|
87 | 78 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
SPA
1 - 4
UTR
31%
25%
44%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2024 |
LIS
1 - 2
UTR
6%
14%
80%
|
87 | 47 | 40 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
UTR
0 - 2
FEY
36%
24%
41%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | 0 |